USD/JPY Forecast and News
USD/JPY drops back below 157.00, as focus shifts to Japan snap election
USD/JPY is back in the red below 157.00 in the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen recovers ground against the US Dollar amid some profit-taking ahead of Japan's snap general election on Sunday. The preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report for February will be released later on Friday.
Latest Japanese Yen News
USD/JPY Technical Overview
The overnight breakout through the 156.50 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 159.13-152.06 downfall – favors the USD/JPY bulls. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands in positive territory while its histogram contracts, suggesting fading bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 68.92, just below overbought.
This, in turn, suggests that the rebound could extend toward the 78.6% retracement at 157.64, while a rejection near resistance would risk a pullback to the 50% retracement at 155.60. A re-expansion of the MACD histogram and a firm RSI above 70 would strengthen the bullish case; otherwise, momentum looks prone to consolidation below resistance.
Fundamental Overview
Softer consumer inflation figures from Japan's capital city – Tokyo – released last week tempered bets for an early interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), further undermining the JPY. The USD, on the other hand, climbs to a two-week top and keeps the USD/JPY pair close to the 157.00 mark. That said, bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates two more times in 2026 and speculations that authorities would step in to stem further JPY warrant caution for bearish traders.
Japanese Yen seems vulnerable as fiscal and political woes offset hawkish BoJ bets
The incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is poised to score a strong victory in the lower house election on February 8. The outcome would give Takaichi a greater grip on Japan's parliament and more headroom to carry out her expansionary fiscal plans.
Takaichi pledged to suspend the 8% consumption tax on food for two years as part of her election campaign, raising concerns about Japan’s fiscal outlook amid fears of debt-funded spending. This has been a key factor behind the Japanese Yen's relative underperformance since the beginning of this week.
Moreover, Takaichi talked up the benefits of a weaker currency during a campaign speech. Although Takaichi later softened the stance, her comments raised doubts over whether authorities would intervene to support the domestic currency. This exerts additional downward pressure on the JPY.
Meanwhile, data released last Friday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan's capital city – Tokyo – fell last month to its weakest level since February 2022. This pointed to signs of softer demand-driven price pressure and reduced urgency for the Bank of Japan to tighten further.
However, the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's January meeting this week highlighted board members' hawkish view amid mounting price pressures from a weak JPY. Moreover, a private survey showed that Japan’s services sector growth accelerated in January at its fastest pace in almost a year.
This suggests that a BoJ rate hike in the first half of 2026 remains on the table. In contrast, traders are pricing in the possibility of two more interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year, which caps the USD/JPY pair near the 157.00 mark, or a nearly two-week top set earlier this Thursday.
In fact, US President Donald Trump said that he would have passed on Kevin Warsh as his nominee to lead the Federal Reserve if he had expressed a desire to hike interest rates. Trump further added that there was not much doubt that the US central bank would lower interest rates.
The US Dollar, however, has climbed to a fresh high since January 23 in the wake of hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lisa Cook, saying that risks are skewed toward higher inflation. This could support the USD/JPY pair as traders now look to a duo of US labor market reports for a fresh impetus.
Thursday's US economic docket features the delayed release of the JOLTS Job Openings data, along with the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, would drive the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair.
Latest JPY Analysis
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Cryptocurrencies
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USD/JPY YEARLY FORECAST
How could USD/JPY move this year? Our experts make a USD/JPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year.
USD/JPY FORECAST 2025
In the USD/JPY 2025 Forecast , FXStreet analyst Yohay Elam indicates that USD/JPY is likely to start the year bearish due to fears of trade wars, Donald Trump's entry into the White House and expected Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. However, a bullish turnaround is anticipated in the following months as Trump's trade deals stabilize global markets, weakening the safe-haven Yen. Further gains are expected in the latter half of the year, driven by a more hawkish Fed and disappointment in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) inaction on rate hikes.
From a technical point of view, USD/JPY remains in a long-term uptrend for 2025, supported by its position above the 50-week SMA. Key resistance levels include 156.97, 161.81, and 170.43, with the latter aligning with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. On the downside, support lies at 147.54, 139.73, and further down at 136.72 and 127.15.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR USD/JPY
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
In Japan, political uncertainty looms, as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lacks a parliamentary majority and may call fresh elections. An LDP victory could strengthen the Yen by ensuring stability, while opposition gains might lead to fiscal expansion and weaken the currency. If no elections occur, a modest budget would likely keep the Yen supported.
In terms of monetary policy, the Fed and BoJ are set to diverge in monetary policy. The Fed expects to deliver only two additional rate cuts in 2025, the BoJ is expected to maintain its dovish stance, avoiding rate hikes amid weak inflation and a shrinking economy, leaving the Yen vulnerable to market disappointment over policy inaction.
Influential Institutions & People for the USD/JPY
The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website , on X and Facebook
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the central bank of Japan. Established under the Bank of
Japan Act in 1882, it is a juridical entity and neither a government agency nor a private corporation. The BoJ
sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary
control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.
Policy Board: The Policy Board is the bank's highest decision-making body. It determines the
guidelines
for currency and monetary control, sets the basic principles for carrying out the bank's operations and oversees
the performance of the bank's officers, excluding auditors and counselors.
History: The Bank of Japan was established under the Bank of Japan Act, promulgated in June
1882, and began operating as the nation's central bank on October 10, 1882. It was reorganized in 1942 under the
Bank of Japan Act of 1942,
which reflected the wartime context. The Act of 1942 was amended several times after World War II, and the
establishment of the Policy Board as the bank's highest decision-making body occurred in June 1949. In June
1997, the Act of 1942 was revised completely under the principles of independence and transparency. The revised
Act came into effect on April 1, 1998.
The official website , on X and YouTube
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Kazuo Ueda
Kazuo Ueda was born in Makinohara, Japan, on September 20, 1951. He is the 32nd and current Governor of the BoJ. He graduated from the University of Tokyo with a Bachelor of Science and Mathematics and received a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
He is a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and also worked as a professor at Kyoritsu Women's University. In February 2023, former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida nominated Ueda as the governor of the BoJ. He is widely regarded as an expert on monetary policy but was considered a surprise appointment by analysts. He wasn’t even considered a dark-horse candidate, as the BoJ governor role has traditionally gone to long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrats or central bank officials. Ueda is the first academic economist to lead the BoJ in the post-World War II era.
Ueda’s Wikipedia profile
BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States. As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a term used t o describe the most important currency pairs in the world. This group also includes GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD , USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD . The popularity of the Euro Dollar pair stems from its representation of two of the world’s largest economies: the Eurozone and the United States.
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.